On July 4, 2024, Britain witnessed early general elections called for, on May 22, by the Prime Minister, former Conservative Party leader, Rishi Sunak, to avoid an attempt to oust him from within his party after his modest performance, which caused British public opinion to completely lose confidence in the Conservative rule that has continued since 2010. Sunak’s announcement of holding general elections was a surprise to the street, to the political and economic circles in Britain, and even to the Conservatives themselves, as there was not enough time to prepare for a difficult election campaign, in light of the significant loss that the Conservatives suffered in the local elections that took place on May 2nd. It appears that the escalation of conflicts within his party, which led to the change of four prime ministers in three years, prompted him to advance the election date. The election results were in line with expectations, as the Labor Party won an overwhelming majority (411 seats out of 650), while the Conservatives suffered the worst defeat in their history. This victory for the Labor Party, led by Sir Keir Starmer, represents a major shift in British politics, and this change is expected to have major implications for Africa, given the historical, economic and political ties between the United Kingdom and many African countries. How can we read the results of those elections and their impact on British foreign policy, especially Africa? This is what we will discuss during this report.
First: Reading the election results.
The election resulted in the rise of the Labor Party, and Keir Starmer became Prime Minister. Starmer began his career as a lawyer in the 1990s, and was appointed Director of Public Prosecutions (the highest-ranking criminal prosecutor in England and Wales) in 2008. He was first elected in the North London constituency of Holborn and St Pancras in 2015, and took over the leadership of the Labor Party after the party’s poor general election in 2015. 2019, vowing to usher in a “new era” after Jeremy Corbyn’s left-wing leadership. Starmer was re-elected in the same constituency this time, saying in his victory speech that people were “ready for change” and promising to “end performance politics”. “Change starts here because this is your democracy, your society and your future,” he said. “You voted, now is the time for us to achieve results.” Starmer visited the King of Britain to receive an official invitation to form a new government, before delivering his speech outside the government building.
1. Distribution of seats: The participation rate in the elections was about 60%, which is the lowest since 2001 (59.4%). The Labor Party won it by an overwhelming majority, winning 411 seats, an increase of 209 seats over the total number of seats it obtained in the 2019 elections, while the Conservatives won 121 seats, losing 244 seats, in one of their worst results in more than a century. Labour’s results are the best since 1997, when former Prime Minister Tony Blair won 417 seats. The Liberal Democrats won 72 seats, compared to 11 seats in the 2019 elections, while the Scottish National Party’s seats fell to nine seats, losing 39 seats. The far-right Reform Party, led by Nigel Farage, entered Parliament for the first time, winning five seats (fewer than polls expected), while the Green Party in England and Wales won four seats. It was striking that although Labor obtained an absolute majority of seats, the percentage of votes they won did not exceed 34% of the total number of voters, because the British electoral system is based on the principle of “winner takes all”. Although Labor’s victory in 411 seats guarantees them a strong parliamentary majority that allows them to pass their agenda in Parliament without difficulties, the low percentage of votes they obtained makes the party government’s share of the votes the lowest that any single-party majority government has obtained in the history of the United Kingdom. The votes were distributed among the rest of the parties, and small parties and independent candidates saw a significant increase in their popular support. The Liberal Democrats, Reform and Greens have made remarkable progress. The traditionally third party in Britain (the Liberal Democrats) received a significant increase in the number of seats, increasing its share from only 11 seats won in the general elections in 2019 to 72 seats. The far-right Reform Party won five seats and entered parliament for the first time, but in return it received 14% of the voters’ votes. This made it the third largest party in terms of voting bloc, after Labour, the Conservatives, and before the Liberal Democrats. This split the right-wing vote and contributed to the Conservative loss. In Scotland, the Scottish National Party suffered a major loss. Its number of seats decreased to only nine from 48 seats in 2019, as a result of a group of scandals that have befallen it in the recent period, and Sinn Féin became the largest party in Northern Ireland, winning seven seats out of the 18 seats allocated to Northern Ireland. The election also resulted in Labor and the Conservatives receiving their lowest combined share of the vote since 1945. This was due to the combined effect of advances by the Liberal Democrats (12%), votes for the Reform Party (14%), and increased votes for the Green Party ( 7%), as well as a higher than usual vote for independents among the Labor Party’s public.
2. The most prominent factors influencing the results: A number of factors can be identified that contributed to determining the election results, and constituted major issues that governed the behavior of the British voter therein: the first of which is; The economic crisis and poor public services, as the British have suffered during the past few years, especially after the Corona crisis (2019-2021), an unprecedented rise in the cost of living. The Conservatives took power at the height of the global financial crisis, and have won three elections since then. But this period was marked by economic stagnation, the decline of public services, and a series of political crises, which made the Conservatives an easy target for criticism from both the left and the right. Secondly; The reputation of the Conservative Party and its government is increasingly linked to the scandals that erupted during the era of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his successor, Liz Trauss, whose government lasted only 44 days, which caused chaos in the economy and financial markets. The most recent scandal to which the Conservatives were exposed was those related to bets, as it was revealed last June that members of the party, including those close to Sunak, had participated in bets on setting the date of the general elections, which prompted many of them to resign or withdraw. And third; Dealing with the migration crisis was another important factor in the deterioration of confidence in the Conservative government. The party’s controversial plans, which require sending irregular migrants to Rwanda until their asylum applications are processed, have sparked widespread criticism, as they violate international law and are inhumane, as well as… Its high financial cost. In contrast, the anti-immigration far right led a campaign that gave the impression that the government had lost control of the border. And fourth: Increasing conflicts and contradictions within the Conservative Party; Since the start of preparations for early general elections, Sunak has faced a crisis within the Conservative Party that he leads, as a large number of active members in various constituencies withdrew from running for elections in the largest withdrawal since 1997, due to the election date being advanced, as some of those withdrawing expressed their lack of… Their willingness to enter the electoral campaign due to the short period of time, while others withdrew due to their inability to provide the necessary funding to run their campaigns. The number of MPs withdrawing from the electoral race reached 78, exceeding the “historic exit era” record of 72 MPs before the general elections in 1997. In addition, the Conservative Party suffers from a leadership problem, as its leadership has changed four times in three years, and It suffered a severe blow by coming third after Labor and the Liberal Democrats in the local elections that took place in May 2024.
3. The fall of many big names: The most notable was the defeat of Liz Truss, who previously served as Prime Minister for only 49 days before being ousted by her party, as she lost her seat early Friday morning in her constituency of southwest Norfolk. One of the biggest names to also suffer defeat was Jacob Rees-Mogg, the former Conservative business secretary and Brexiteer, losing his seat of East Somerset and Hanham to Labour. He told the BBC he could “blame no one but himself” for the loss but took “a small silver lining” from the fact that the Conservatives would be “at least the official opposition”, alluding to fears they wouldn’t even be. Grant Shapps, the Defense Secretary, appeared upset after losing his seat in the south of England. Commons Speaker Penny Mordaunt, who vied with Rishi Sunak for the party leadership before he became prime minister, also lost her seat. Sunak won his Yorkshire seat with a comfortable majority of around 12,000 votes, but made a speech accepting the concession and confirming his party’s election loss.
Second: The effects of the rise of the Labor Party on Britain’s domestic and foreign policies.
The rise of the Labor Party in Britain carries with it many implications for some changes in Britain’s domestic and foreign policies, which can be summarized as follows:
- At the internal level: the steps that follow this major victory for Starmer and the Labor Party; These are: The Prime Minister will select members of his cabinet to lead specific areas such as health, defense and the environment. Government House will see a lot of movement from MPs coming and going before and during the announcement of Cabinet members, and the Prime Minister will receive more briefings from advisers, and set out his policy priorities. After the House of Commons met for the first time; The Speaker of the House of Commons is elected before MPs take the constitutional oath. The King will officially open Parliament with the King’s Speech, which will be delivered on 17 July. After this victory; The Labor Party must now work to implement the pledges it made in its election manifesto. The most prominent of them were: First; Providing economic stability through clear rules on taxation and spending, including not increasing current income tax, insurance, or value-added tax rates. Secondly; Improving health services, and increasing allowances for weekend and evening work. Thirdly; Establishing a border security command with powers similar to those of fighting terrorism, with the aim of stopping human trafficking and smuggling gangs. And fourthly; Establishing a publicly owned clean energy company, with the aim of creating job opportunities and investing in clean energy. Fifthly; Tackling anti-social behavior with an additional 13,000 police officers and community support officers in England and Wales. Sixthly; Recruit 6,500 extra teachers and introduce free breakfast clubs in every primary school in England.
- On the external level: Most of the fundamentals of British foreign policy, especially with regard to NATO, Ukraine, and relations with the United States and China, will likely enjoy a great deal of continuity with the new government’s approach in the footsteps of the old, so the NATO summit will provide Starmer an early opportunity to reaffirm the party’s support. Workers to swear. British support for Ukraine will not decline, as Starmer told the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, in a phone call on the evening of his entry into the government headquarters, in addition to the celebration of the new Minister of Defense, John Healey, with Zelensky, on July 7, the Ukrainian Navy Day in Odessa, He announced a new shipment of Brimstone anti-tank missiles, 90 self-propelled artillery pieces, and other equipment. The Labor Party seems determined to keep the Anglo-American relationship on track if Joe Biden loses the election next November. So Secretary of State David Lammy, a frequent visitor to Washington, sought to build bridges with Trump’s circle and said that European countries would be asked to contribute more to the continent’s defense, whoever wins. As for relations with China, Labor has promised a full review of its relationship with the country, and the Conservative policy path is likely to continue, and this implies an attempt to maintain openness to trade in consumer goods (although Rachel Reeves, the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, is adopting a view A skeptical view of Chinese investment in nuclear energy, communications and other sensitive areas). The most urgent transformation facing the Labor Party is relations with the European Union, as the party hopes for warmer relations. Although the Labor Party rules out a return to the European Union, the single market, or the customs union (if that is on the table), in addition to the agreements On cross-border food trade and closer ties in education and research, he wants a “new form” of security and defense cooperation agreements. But Europe is not the only region where a change in the form and tone of foreign policy will appear. After the Labor Party significantly lost the support of British Muslim voters in the elections, due to the party’s ambiguity regarding the Zionist war on Gaza, Starmer resorted to confirming to Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian President, on July 7, stating that statehood is an “undeniable right” of the Palestinians. However, all of this must not deviate from the fact that immediate change is not related to the principle of the Labor Party as much as it is related to Britain’s international standing.
Third: The results of the British and African elections.
It is well known that since the Brexit referendum in 2016, Africa has fallen down the UK political agenda. For example, the dismantling of the Department for International Development and its merger into the new Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office in 2020, as well as the undermining of aid in favor of meeting internal British needs, led to the departure of many experienced staff who maintained relationships with African politicians and civil society leaders. Recent discussions about Africa have also focused on the transfer of some migrants to Rwanda, i.e. viewing Africa as a threat.
- The historical context of British-African relations: Africa’s relationship with the United Kingdom is deeply rooted in its colonial past. Countries such as Nigeria, Ghana, Sierra Leone and Kenya have long-standing relationships with the United Kingdom, which continue to influence their political, economic and cultural landscape. In all, 21 out of 56 African countries belong to the Commonwealth, including the most populous and powerful countries such as Nigeria and South Africa. English is an official language in all of these countries, except in Mozambique, where Portuguese is the community language. In Cameroon and Rwanda, English and French are official languages. One of the cornerstones of the Conservative Party’s Africa policy has been the centrality of economic partnerships. After Britain left the European Union, the United Kingdom sought to sign bilateral trade agreements with African countries. This was aimed at securing new markets for British goods and services, and ensuring access to Africa’s rich natural resources. This strategy is evident in initiatives such as the UK-Africa Investment Summit held in 2020 and 2024, which highlighted opportunities for investment and economic cooperation. However, some argue that this economic focus often prioritizes British interests over those of African countries. The nature of these trade agreements sometimes reflects historical patterns of exploitation, whereby African resources are extracted with minimal benefit to local communities. There are also concerns that the push for economic liberalization and deregulation could undermine local industries and lead to increased inequality. Labor’s return to power after 14 years of opposition could herald major changes in these relations, especially in the areas of development aid and foreign policy.
- Areas of British-African cooperation expected to be affected by the election results: There are several areas that are considered among the most important main areas in which the Labor government is expected to have an impact: The first is; Development aid: Historically, Labor governments have demonstrated a strong commitment to international development. For example, Tony Blair’s administration was instrumental in establishing the Department for International Development in 1997, which led to a significant increase in UK aid to developing countries. In contrast, under the Conservative government, the Department for International Development was merged with the Foreign Office in 2020, and the foreign aid budget was reduced from 0.7% to 0.5% of GNI. The reduction has been criticized because it reduces the UK’s role in supporting the world’s most vulnerable populations. The Labor Party statement indicates a possible reversal of these cuts and the return of a more robust aid programme, with a focus on poverty alleviation and sustainable development in Africa. Secondly; Trade policies: Trade is another crucial area, where a Labor victory could impact trade relations with Africa. The UK’s post-Brexit trade policies are still evolving, and Labour’s approach could offer more favorable terms for African countries. The Labor Party’s manifesto emphasizes fair trade practices and the promotion of economic partnerships that benefit both parties. This could translate into improving market access for African products, supporting local industries, and promoting economic growth and development. And third; Immigration and freedom of movement: Immigration policies under a Labor government are expected to be more inclusive compared to the Conservative administration. The Conservative government’s crackdown on immigration, especially on students and skilled workers, has been a controversial issue. Nigerians, the second largest group of non-EU migrants to the UK, have been significantly affected by these policies. Labour’s manifesto signals a shift towards policies that could allow for more balanced immigration, with a focus on skilled migrants and potentially easing restrictions on family reunification. And fourth: Supporting diplomatic relations: Diplomatic relations between the UK and African countries could see a positive transformation under a Labor government. Labor’s foreign policy is expected to focus on multilateralism, human rights, and international cooperation. This approach could strengthen the UK’s engagement with African countries on global issues such as climate change, security and health. Africa can use this opportunity to negotiate stronger and mutually beneficial agreements with the United Kingdom.
Conclusion; The results of the recent general elections in Britain brought an unprecedented defeat for the Conservative Party, after 14 years in power. The party lost two-thirds of the seats it held, prompting Sunak to resign from his leadership, leaving behind a torn party. The election results expressed the desire for change, and to punish the Conservative Party after the turbulent years that followed Britain’s exit from the European Union, in addition to its mismanagement of the Corona, immigration, and inflation crises. The election results gave an indication of the fragmentation of votes between parties and the flaccidity of the traditional electoral system in Britain, which is based on bipartisanship.
As for Africa; Labour’s victory in the United Kingdom has major implications for Africa. Potential increases in development aid, fairer trade policies, more inclusive immigration rules and strengthened diplomatic relations could foster a stronger relationship and collaborative partnerships between the UK and African countries. However, realizing these benefits will require strategic engagement and negotiations on the part of African leaders to ensure that their interests are appropriately represented and addressed. As the new government takes shape in London, Africa must remain proactive in its engagement to benefit from this political shift in the United Kingdom. Despite these potential benefits, challenges remain. The UK’s economic situation, especially post-Brexit and in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, is likely to limit the amount of aid and investment it can provide. Moreover, Africa must present a united front to maximize its negotiating capacity. Clear and coherent demands from African countries on trade, aid and migration policies will be crucial in forging a beneficial partnership with a Labor government.
