In mid-August, Egypt and Somalia signed a military cooperation protocol in Cairo, following an agreement to deploy Egyptian forces as part of an African peacekeeping mission set to begin in Somalia next year. This involvement by Egypt in Somalia’s crisis has sparked concerns about its potential geopolitical effects, especially amid growing tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia, which could destabilize the already fragile Horn of Africa region. This article will explore the background, details, and potential geopolitical impact of this agreement.
Background of the Agreement: Earlier this year, Somaliland announced an agreement to lease land to Ethiopia for a naval base on its coast, in exchange for Ethiopian recognition of Somaliland as an independent state. Somalia, which considers Somaliland part of its territory, saw this as a threat to its sovereignty, fearing that Ethiopia’s growing influence might encourage other African Union states to recognize Somaliland’s independence. Protests erupted in Somalia, as the agreement gave Ethiopia access to 20 kilometers of the Somali coast, where the naval base is planned. In response, Somalia threatened to expel up to 10,000 Ethiopian troops from its territory unless the deal was canceled. These forces are currently stationed in Somalia as part of a peacekeeping mission and in cooperation with Mogadishu to combat Al-Shabaab militants.
Amid this tension, Somalia and Egypt grew closer, with Egypt, which has been in a long-standing dispute with Ethiopia over the Nile, condemning the Somaliland deal. Egypt then signed a security agreement with Somalia and proposed sending troops to a new peacekeeping mission. Although Egypt has not made a public statement, the African Union confirmed this offer in August. Ethiopia responded with a warning, accusing Somalia of colluding with foreign actors to destabilize the region, though Ethiopia did not directly mention Egypt or its arms deliveries to Somalia. Tensions escalated further when two Egyptian C-130 military aircraft arrived in Mogadishu, signaling the start of the defense cooperation between Egypt and Somalia.
Details of the Agreement and Regional Context: The Egyptian-Somali defense protocol represents a deepening of ties between the two nations, building on earlier agreements Somalia had made with Turkey and the UAE. While the details of the agreement are not yet fully disclosed, it is expected to include intelligence sharing, military training, and Egyptian military support for Somalia. Up to 5,000 Egyptian soldiers may join an African Union force in Somalia by the end of the year, with an additional 5,000 deployed separately.
The agreement highlights a significant shift in Egypt’s involvement in Somalia, signaling a broader role than just short-term crisis support. However, the success of this partnership will depend on Egypt’s economic capacity and the stance of Gulf states with interests in both Somalia and Ethiopia. Additionally, Egypt’s involvement aligns with its strategic interests, including securing the Bab al-Mandab Strait and countering Ethiopia’s growing influence in the Red Sea, where the UAE, Turkey, the US, and the UK already have military presences.
Benefits for Both Countries: For Somalia, the agreement strengthens its ability to safeguard its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and coastline from Ethiopia’s expanding influence. Somalia, weakened by decades of civil war, has long accused Ethiopia of fueling internal conflicts by arming rival Somali factions. Egypt benefits by protecting its national security, as Ethiopia’s actions, particularly the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), threaten its share of Nile waters. Additionally, Egypt views Ethiopia’s ambition to control the Bab al-Mandab Strait as a direct threat to the Red Sea’s strategic importance. Through this agreement, Egypt aims to challenge Ethiopia’s influence in the Red Sea and support the Somali army’s fight against Al-Shabaab.
Geopolitical Implications: Both Ethiopia and Somalia are grappling with internal conflicts—Ethiopia with regional rebellions and Somalia with Al-Shabaab’s insurgency. Any further escalation could destabilize the Red Sea region, drawing in other nations and affecting global trade. The Red Sea sees around 17,000 ships pass through the Suez Canal each year, accounting for 12% of global trade, according to Lloyd’s List. This highlights why regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Turkey are keen on forming strategic partnerships with countries like Somalia that have access to the Red Sea.
The defense pact is not merely a reaction to the current Somali-Ethiopian crisis but reflects Egypt’s larger concerns about Ethiopia, especially regarding the Nile and Ethiopia’s plan to establish a naval base in Somaliland. Ethiopia, which relies on Djibouti for Red Sea access due to tense relations with Eritrea, sees this as crucial to diversifying its maritime routes. The Egyptian-Somali pact, therefore, heightens the risk of the Horn of Africa becoming a stage for a proxy war, with Ethiopia seeking to leverage its alliances with local Somali forces to counter Egypt’s presence.
In the wider context, the Horn of Africa has also seen increased instability due to the conflict in Yemen. Reports suggest the Houthi rebels may be using Somalia as a route to Iraq, where Iran has mobilized fighters from across the Middle East. This situation could exacerbate security concerns in the Indian Ocean, destabilizing trade routes between Europe and India and increasing tensions in the Mediterranean.
Conclusion: The Egyptian-Somali defense agreement comes amid ongoing tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia over the GERD. Ethiopia views any Egyptian military presence near its borders as a security threat. This defense pact marks a significant escalation in the geopolitical competition between the two nations, with far-reaching implications for the Horn of Africa. Soon, we can expect Ethiopia to intensify its pressure on Somalia while advancing its naval ambitions with Somaliland. Regional actors, including Gulf states, are likely to intervene to limit Egyptian-Somali military cooperation, while diplomatic efforts—such as talks mediated by Turkey—aim to prevent further destabilization. Djibouti has also entered the fray, offering Ethiopia the use of its Tadjoura Port, further complicating the region’s already volatile geopolitical landscape.
